predicting the future

One definition of stupid is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. Normally the way we predict what is going to happen in the future is by looking at the past. And it works pretty well. If I had to guess, the American League will win the All-Star game next year too, just like they have won the last dozen or so in a row. Were I into gambling and someone gave me that bet straight up, I would take it despite being a National League guy. But the thing is streaks eventually end. I remember a long time ago hearing about how the United States had won the "America's Cup" yahting race for alike a 100+ years in a row. And then some guys in New Zealand built some crazy boat that Dennis Conner still thinks was illegal and they win. I just looked it up and the US has not won the last four times.

I have been thinking about this as I have been listening to statistics like "inflation has averaged such and such over the last 20 years" or "The Stock Market has averaged such and such over the last 70 years." On the one hand, past track records are about the best thing we have to go on for predicting the future, but on the other streaks end. I like to think of someone in Augustine's day saying "The Roman Empire will not fall apart. People have been saying that it will happen for centuries and it never does." But of course it did. Or like assuming that the world will always go on like it has been going on for thousands of years. The reality is that there are unique events (the beginning of the universe for example). Empires rise and fall. We need to have the humility remember that all of our preditions are only predictions, not guarantees, and that the only solid guarantee is that eventually the streak will end.